Presidential Election Remains Uncertain

Erica Wildberger

November 6th, 2020

It could be days before we know the outcome of the presidential race. But it is clear Donald Trump and Republicans performed (once again) far better than predicted by polls. All eyes are on Michigan as it could provide Biden with 270 votes (and leaving Trump with 268). Joe Biden's path to victory...

...has widened as he is now projected to win the key state of Wisconsin and has pulled ahead in Michigan. But it could still be days before enough votes are counted to determine the winner.

We will end up with a divided government: a Democratic House; a Republican Senate; and a yet-to-be-determined President. A contested election and a divided Government will slow any possible fiscal stimulus. And any possible stimulus will be considerably smaller than if Democrats had won all branches of Government.

For 2021 health policy, divided Government also means a more incrementalist approach and that may prove to be good news for capital markets. And a Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate means the most liberal Democrats are not going to be empowered to overreach, probably helping Biden in one sense.