Campaign 2022 Forecast
April 12th, 2021
We devote this week’s deck to a forecast of the 2022 Congressional elections. Of course, with a year and a half to go...
We start by recapping the outcome of the 2020 elections. Then we move to the US House where Democrats have 222 seats (51%) and Republicans have 213 (49%). Based on historical trends, we estimate Republicans have a high chance – let’s say 65% -- of retaking control of the House in 2022.
Then we look at the Senate which is now divided 50-50, with Democrats in control because of Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking vote. For reasons noted herein, we estimate the chances of Republicans taking control of Senate in 2021 to be -- maybe not surprisingly -- 50-50.